Bolton 4–3 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

C. Barker 90+9' (OG)

J. Sheehan 85'

A. Murphy 68'

J. Osei-Tutu 52'

R. Hepburn-Murphy 62', 50'

W. Swan 54'

2/8/2025

League One · Round 31Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bolton57%

×Draw22%

Crawley Town21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.08

Bolton

1.91

Crawley Town

1.08

Bolton creates 77% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 31 away

1.72

creates per match

1.10

1.05

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Bolton

1.72

Crawley Town

1.10

allows per match

Bolton

1.05

Crawley Town

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

79%

Bolton or Crawley Town

78%

Draw or Crawley Town

43%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

33%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

85%

Bolton 2+ goals

57%

Bolton 3+ goals

30%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

66%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

29%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

73%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 136 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.72 + Crawley Town defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.91

Crawley Town attack 1.10 + Bolton defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bolton scores more

57%

level

22%

Crawley Town scores more

21%

Bolton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Sheehan

Bolton · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

Josh Sheehan

50'

R. Hepburn-Murphy↳ T. John-Jules

52'

J. Osei-Tutu↳ J. Dacres-Cogley

54'

W. Swan↳ H. Forster

61'

Ben Radcliffe

62'

R. Hepburn-Murphy↳ K. Doyle

63'

T. Showunmi← K. Doyle

64'

R. Feely← H. Forster

68'

A. Murphy↳ J. Sheehan

69'

G. Jones← J. Dacres-Cogley

69'

K. Lolos← S. Schön

69'

G. Johnston← A. Murphy

70'

V. Adeboyejo← J. Randall

70'

A. Adeyemo← W. Swan

72'

Charlie Barker

80'

Junior Quitirna← Panutche Camará

84'

85'

89'

89'

90+8'

90'

J. Matete← W. Forrester

90+9'

C. BarkerOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonCrawley

Overview

67%Possession33%

17Total Shots11

4Corners5

9Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots11

5On Target4

7Off Target3

5Blocked4

12Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

534Total Passes269

446Accurate Passes193

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides5