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Bolton vs Coventry — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
8/10/2019League OneLeague One · Round 2University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Bolton46%
×Draw25%
Coventry29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.56
Coventry
1.19

Bolton creates 31% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 44 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.72
Coventry
1.32

allows per match

Bolton
1.05
Coventry
1.41

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
71%
Bolton or Coventry
75%
Draw or Coventry
54%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
23%
Coventry wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
79%
Bolton 2+ goals
46%
Bolton 3+ goals
21%
Coventry 1+ goals
70%
Coventry 2+ goals
33%
Coventry 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
61%
Coventry (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 136 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.72 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Coventry attack 1.32 + Bolton defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bolton scores more
46%
level
25%
Coventry scores more
29%

Bolton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

43
M. AlexanderBoltonBolton
8.5

Match Events

19'
Eddie Brown
30'
Fankaty Dabo
58'
James Weir
60'
M. Biamou← J. Hiwula-Mayifuila
61'
M. Godden← A. Bakayoko
67'
F. Hurford-Lockett← C. King-Harmes
82'
Ronan Darcy
86'
Dennis Politic
87'
W. Bapaga← Z. Westbrooke

Possession

33%Bolton

Shots

5Bolton

Pass accuracy

43%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonCoventry
Overview
33%Possession67%
5Total Shots24
2Corners4
19Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots24
2On Target7
3Off Target12
0Blocked5
3Inside Box15
2Outside Box9
Passing
33%Possession67%
273Total Passes543
164Accurate Passes435
60%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides6

Match Recap: Bolton vs Coventry

Bolton and Coventry drew 0-0 in League One on August 10, 2019.

Coventry controlled possession (67%) and registered 24 shots to 5.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.