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Bolton vs Charlton — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
1/21/2025League OneLeague One · Round 26Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Bolton44%
×Draw26%
Charlton30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.48
Charlton
1.17

Bolton creates 26% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 140 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.74
Charlton
1.24

allows per match

Bolton
1.09
Charlton
1.23

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
70%
Bolton or Charlton
74%
Draw or Charlton
56%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
22%
Charlton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
77%
Bolton 2+ goals
43%
Bolton 3+ goals
19%
Charlton 1+ goals
69%
Charlton 2+ goals
33%
Charlton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
60%
Charlton (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 138 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.23 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.74 + Charlton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Charlton attack 1.24 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bolton scores more
44%
level
26%
Charlton scores more
30%

Bolton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bolton 1–2 Charlton

Charlton beat Bolton 2-1 in League One on January 21, 2025.

The match was played at Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton.