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Bolton vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
9/6/2021League OneLeague One · Round 6University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bolton47%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.75
Burton Albion
1.34

Bolton creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.85
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Bolton
1.38
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Bolton+0.46scores more
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
70%
Bolton or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
53%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
25%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
83%
Bolton 2+ goals
52%
Bolton 3+ goals
25%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
74%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
39%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
61%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.85 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Bolton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bolton scores more
47%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
30%

Bolton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
B. GarrattBurton AlbionBurton Albion · G
8.0

Match Events

9'
Thomas Hamer
19'
Lucas Akins
36'
Jordan Williams
65'
H. Chapman← K. Hemmings
65'
B. Morris← J. Powell
69'
John Brayford
72'
E. Kachunga← E. Doyle
80'
Charlie Lakin
86'
John Brayford
86'
John Brayford
88'
N. Delfouneso← O. Afolayan
88'
F. Blake-Tracy← J. Smith
90+5'
George Johnston

Possession

75%Bolton

Shots

25Bolton

Pass accuracy

62%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonBurton
Overview
75%Possession25%
25Total Shots10
14Corners3
7Fouls17
Shots
25Total Shots10
4On Target1
11Off Target5
10Blocked4
15Inside Box2
10Outside Box8
Passing
75%Possession25%
525Total Passes184
447Accurate Passes98
85%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls17
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

League One: Bolton 0–0 Burton Albion

Bolton and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in League One on September 6, 2021.

Bolton controlled possession (75%) and registered 25 shots to 10.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.