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Bolton vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blackpool
Blackpool
11/23/2024League OneLeague One · Round 17Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Bolton45%
×Draw26%
Blackpool29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.46
Blackpool
1.10

Bolton creates 33% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 135 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.73
Blackpool
1.11

allows per match

Bolton
1.09
Blackpool
1.19

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
71%
Bolton or Blackpool
74%
Draw or Blackpool
55%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
22%
Blackpool wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
77%
Bolton 2+ goals
43%
Bolton 3+ goals
18%
Blackpool 1+ goals
67%
Blackpool 2+ goals
30%
Blackpool 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
61%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Blackpool defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bolton scores more
45%
level
26%
Blackpool scores more
29%

Bolton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolton vs Blackpool

Bolton beat Blackpool 2-1 in League One on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton.