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Bolton vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
Preview
15:00
Blackburn
Blackburn
12/5/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19Toughsheet Community Stadium
Big match
37%
Bolton
model favours
37%27%36%

80% of Bolton’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton37%
×Draw27%
Blackburn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.29
Blackburn
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 194 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Blackburn
1.15

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Blackburn
1.43

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
64%
Bolton or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
63%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
16%
Blackburn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
72%
Bolton 2+ goals
37%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%
Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
51%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bolton scores more
37%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
36%

Bolton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bolton have scored in 9 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (80% and 60% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 70% of Bolton’s matches
  • 40% of Bolton’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
Blackburn
Balanced
41%PossessionBiggest gap50%
66%Pass accuracy75%
9.5Shots11.1
—xG1.15
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BoltonBlackburn

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Bolton
2
Draws
4
Blackburn
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 30%
2–20–20–11–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bolton
WLWWW
Blackburn
LWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton face Blackburn (Championship)

Championship returns with Bolton hosting Blackburn. Match starts December 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bolton host Blackburn at Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.