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Bolton vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
B. Dack 22'
10/6/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton37%
×Draw27%
Blackburn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.29
Blackburn
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 194 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Blackburn
1.15

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Blackburn
1.43

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
64%
Bolton or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
63%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
16%
Blackburn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
72%
Bolton 2+ goals
37%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%
Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
51%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bolton scores more
37%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
36%

Bolton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
J. WilliamsBoltonBolton · M
7.9

Match Events

22'
B. Dack
45'
Derrick Williams
46'
Y. Wildschut← W. Buckley
50'
Josh Magennis
59'
R. Smallwood← J. Rodwell
59'
C. Evans← J. Rothwell
66'
Harrison Reed
67'
L. Dyer← C. Noone
70'
A. Armstrong← K. Palmer
78'
C. Doidge← J. Grounds
81'
Jason Lowe
86'
David Raya
89'
Joe Williams

Possession

52%Bolton

Shots

13Bolton

Pass accuracy

51%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonBlackburn
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots7
7Corners3
14Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots7
4On Target4
3Off Target2
6Blocked1
6Inside Box6
7Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
483Total Passes444
343Accurate Passes303
71%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Championship: Bolton 0–1 Blackburn

Blackburn beat Bolton 1-0 in Championship on October 6, 2018.

Goals: B. Dack (22').

Bolton controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Horwich.