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Bolton vs Blackburn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bolton
Bolton
PST
00:00
Blackburn
Blackburn
8/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bolton38%
×Draw27%
Blackburn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.31
Blackburn
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.71
Blackburn
1.64

allows per match

Bolton
0.86
Blackburn
0.91

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
65%
Bolton or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
62%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
17%
Blackburn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
73%
Bolton 2+ goals
38%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%
Blackburn 1+ goals
71%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
52%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.71 + Blackburn defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Blackburn attack 1.64 + Bolton defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolton scores more
38%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
35%

Bolton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton face Blackburn (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Bolton hosting Blackburn. Match starts August 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bolton host Blackburn at University of Bolton Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.