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Bologna vs Spal — Serie A 2018

Bologna
Bologna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
8/30/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 2Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bologna50%
×Draw25%
Spal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna
1.60
Spal
1.06

Bologna creates 51% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bologna
1.44
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Bologna
1.21
Spal
1.76

finishing

Bologna+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bologna or draw
75%
Bologna or Spal
75%
Draw or Spal
50%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+
26%
Spal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals
80%
Bologna 2+ goals
47%
Bologna 3+ goals
22%
Spal 1+ goals
65%
Spal 2+ goals
29%
Spal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)
66%
Spal (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 134 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.44 + Spal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Spal attack 0.92 + Bologna defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bologna scores more
50%
level
25%
Spal scores more
25%

Bologna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Bologna 1–0 Spal

Bologna beat Spal 1-0 in Serie A on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.