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Bologna vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Bologna
Bologna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
M. Arnautović 62'
M. Barrow 59'
L. Martínez 54'
9/11/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 6Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Bologna43%
×Draw27%
Fiorentina30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna
1.39
Fiorentina
1.11

Bologna creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bologna
1.30
Fiorentina
1.11

allows per match

Bologna
1.11
Fiorentina
1.47

finishing

Bologna-0.13scores less
Fiorentina-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bologna or draw
70%
Bologna or Fiorentina
73%
Draw or Fiorentina
57%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+
20%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals
75%
Bologna 2+ goals
40%
Bologna 3+ goals
16%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
67%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
30%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)
59%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 29 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.47 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.30 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fiorentina attack 1.11 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bologna scores more
43%
level
27%
Fiorentina scores more
30%

Bologna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
L. MartínezFiorentinaFiorentina · D
7.9

Match Events

45+1'
L. Venuti← Dodô
46'
Christian Kouamé
46'
R. Saponara← R. Sottil
50'
Sofyan Amrabat
54'
L. Martínez↳ R. Saponara
59'
M. Barrow
61'
C. Lykogiannis← A. Cambiaso
62'
M. Arnautović↳ D. Kasius
72'
R. Orsolini← M. Arnautović
72'
J. Ikoné← A. Barák
79'
L. De Silvestri← D. Kasius
79'
K. Bonifazi← G. Medel
85'
R. Mandragora← S. Amrabat
85'
Arthur Cabral← C. Kouamé
87'
Charalampos Lykogiannis
90+7'
Igor Júlio
90+1'
Igor Júlio
90+7'
Igor Júlio

Possession

39%Bologna

Shots

12Bologna

Pass accuracy

47%Bologna

Statistics

BolognaFiorentina
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots13
6Corners8
8Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots13
4On Target2
5Off Target7
3Blocked4
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
39%Possession61%
295Total Passes443
226Accurate Passes381
77%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Serie A: Bologna 2–1 Fiorentina

Bologna beat Fiorentina 2-1 in Serie A on September 11, 2022.

Goals: L. Martínez (54'), M. Barrow (59'), M. Arnautović (62').

Fiorentina controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.