Bologna 2–1 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Bologna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Brescia

2/1/2020

Serie A · Round 22Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bologna58%

×Draw23%

Brescia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolognaExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.95

Bologna

1.83

Brescia

0.95

Bologna creates 93% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 22 away

1.44

creates per match

0.68

1.21

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Bologna

1.44

Brescia

0.68

allows per match

Bologna

1.21

Brescia

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bologna+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bologna or draw

81%

Bologna or Brescia

77%

Draw or Brescia

42%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+

33%

Brescia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals

84%

Bologna 2+ goals

54%

Bologna 3+ goals

28%

Brescia 1+ goals

61%

Brescia 2+ goals

25%

Brescia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)

75%

Brescia (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 134 matches

Brescia away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.44 + Brescia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

Brescia attack 0.68 + Bologna defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bologna scores more

58%

level

23%

Brescia scores more

19%

Bologna at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff