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Bologna vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Bologna
Bologna
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
AC Milan
AC Milan
A. Rabiot 48'
C. Nkunku 39' (pen)
R. Loftus-Cheek 20'
2/3/2026Serie ASerie A · Round 23Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Bologna34%
×Draw27%
AC Milan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna
1.22
AC Milan
1.35

AC Milan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bologna
1.27
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Bologna
1.13
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Bologna-0.12scores less
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bologna or draw
60%
Bologna or AC Milan
73%
Draw or AC Milan
66%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+
14%
AC Milan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals
70%
Bologna 2+ goals
34%
Bologna 3+ goals
12%
AC Milan 1+ goals
74%
AC Milan 2+ goals
39%
AC Milan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)
46%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.13 · 27 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.27 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bologna scores more
34%
level
27%
AC Milan scores more
40%

AC Milan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
R. Loftus-Cheek↳ A. Rabiot
39'
C. NkunkuPenalty
48'
A. Rabiot
51'
Federico Ravaglia
53'
F. Bernardeschi← R. Orsolini
54'
T. Dallinga← S. Castro
58'
Remo Freuler
64'
Lewis Ferguson
65'
N. Moro← R. Freuler
67'
S. Ricci← R. Loftus-Cheek
67'
F. Tomori← Z. Athekame
72'
N. Fullkrug← C. Nkunku
72'
A. Jashari← L. Modric
78'
C. Lykogiannis← J. Miranda
78'
N. Cambiaghi← J. Rowe
83'
P. Estupinan← D. Bartesaghi

Possession

54%Bologna

Shots

13Bologna

Pass accuracy

51%Bologna

Statistics

BolognaAC
Overview
54%Possession46%
13Total Shots10
0.45Expected Goals (xG)2.66
5Corners0
14Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots10
2On Target7
9Off Target2
2Blocked1
7Inside Box10
6Outside Box0
Passing
54%Possession46%
491Total Passes429
430Accurate Passes361
88%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
0.15Goals Prevented0.15
Discipline
14Fouls10
3Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Bologna vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Bologna 3-0 in Serie A on February 3, 2026.

Goals: R. Loftus-Cheek (20'), C. Nkunku (39' pen), A. Rabiot (48').

Bologna controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.