Bologna 2–4 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolognaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.32

Bologna

1.23

AC Milan

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.31

creates per match

1.53

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Bologna

1.31

AC Milan

1.53

allows per match

Bologna

1.11

AC Milan

1.14

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Bologna-0.13scores less

AC Milan-0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bologna or draw

61%

Bologna or AC Milan

73%

Draw or AC Milan

65%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+

15%

AC Milan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals

71%

Bologna 2+ goals

35%

Bologna 3+ goals

13%

AC Milan 1+ goals

73%

AC Milan 2+ goals

38%

AC Milan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)

47%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.31 + AC Milan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

AC Milan attack 1.53 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bologna scores more

35%

level

27%

AC Milan scores more

39%

AC Milan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

I. Bennacer

AC Milan · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

Rafael Leão↳ Z. Ibrahimović

20'

34'

35'

45+1'

46'

A. Saelemaekers← Samu Castillejo

46'

T. Bakayoko← S. Tonali

49'

Z. IbrahimovićOwn goal

52'

M. Barrow↳ R. Soriano

57'

Roberto SorianoCard upgrade

58'

60'

61'

63'

63'

63'

J. Schouten← N. Domínguez

67'

Alexis Saelemaekers

83'

F. Santander← M. Arnautović

84'

I. Bennacer

85'

P. Kalulu← F. Ballo

87'

R. Orsolini← G. Medel

90'

Z. Ibrahimović↳ I. Bennacer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolognaAC

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots15

4Corners1

7Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target7

3Off Target3

2Blocked5

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

349Total Passes596

275Accurate Passes531

79%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Bologna vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Bologna 4-2 in Serie A on October 23, 2021.

Goals: Rafael Leão (16'), D. Calabria (35'), Z. Ibrahimović (49' o.g., 90'), M. Barrow (52'), I. Bennacer (84').

AC Milan controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.

Bologna vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bologna vs AC Milan