Bologna 2–3 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Bologna

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

AC Milan

Nicola Sansone 84' (pen)

Theo Hernández 40' (OG)

Giacomo Bonaventura 46'

Theo Hernández 32'

Krzysztof Piątek 15' (pen)

12/8/2019

Serie A · Round 15Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Bologna36%

×Draw27%

AC Milan38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolognaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

Bologna

1.27

AC Milan

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

1.31

creates per match

1.50

1.11

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Bologna

1.31

AC Milan

1.50

allows per match

Bologna

1.11

AC Milan

1.23

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Bologna-0.15scores less

AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bologna or draw

62%

Bologna or AC Milan

73%

Draw or AC Milan

64%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+

16%

AC Milan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals

72%

Bologna 2+ goals

36%

Bologna 3+ goals

14%

AC Milan 1+ goals

73%

AC Milan 2+ goals

38%

AC Milan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)

49%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 31 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.31 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bologna scores more

36%

level

27%

AC Milan scores more

38%

AC Milan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Krzysztof Piątek

AC Milan · F

8.0

Match Events

14'

Mattia Bani

15'

Krzysztof PiątekPenalty

21'

Ismaël Bennacer

32'

Theo Hernández↳ Suso

40'

Theo HernándezOwn goal

46'

Giacomo Bonaventura

46'

Mattias Svanberg← Jerdy Schouten

64'

Federico Santander← Blerim Džemaili

70'

Lucas Biglia← Ismaël Bennacer

74'

Takehiro Tomiyasu

77'

Rodrigo Palacio

78'

Riccardo Orsolini← Andreas Skov Olsen

79'

Lucas Paquetá← Giacomo Bonaventura

81'

Federico Santander

83'

Alessio Romagnoli

84'

Nicola SansonePenalty

85'

Samu Castillejo← Hakan Çalhanoğlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolognaAC

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots12

5Corners1

17Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target7

5Off Target3

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

415Total Passes435

311Accurate Passes328

75%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls19

4Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1