Bologna U20 3–2 Udinese U20: Result & Stats

Bologna U20

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Udinese U20

10/26/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 9Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bologna U2066%

×Draw18%

Udinese U2016%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bologna U20Expected goals in this matchUdinese U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.09

Bologna U20

2.41

Udinese U20

1.09

Bologna U20 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

1.56

creates per match

0.68

1.51

allows per match

3.26

creates per match

Bologna U20

1.56

Udinese U20

0.68

allows per match

Bologna U20

1.51

Udinese U20

3.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par

Udinese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Udinese U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw

84%

Bologna U20 or Udinese U20

82%

Draw or Udinese U20

34%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+

44%

Udinese U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals

91%

Bologna U20 2+ goals

69%

Bologna U20 3+ goals

43%

Udinese U20 1+ goals

66%

Udinese U20 2+ goals

30%

Udinese U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)

81%

Udinese U20 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Udinese U20 away — creates 0.68, concedes 3.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Udinese U20 defence 3.26 → ÷2 → 2.41

Udinese U20 attack 0.68 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bologna U20 scores more

66%

level

18%

Udinese U20 scores more

16%

Bologna U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff