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Bologna U20 vs Sampdoria U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U20
Bologna U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sampdoria U20
Sampdoria U20
3/9/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 29Centro Sportivo Crespellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bologna U2051%
×Draw23%
Sampdoria U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U20
1.80
Sampdoria U20
1.23

Bologna U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bologna U20
1.56
Sampdoria U20
0.95

allows per match

Bologna U20
1.51
Sampdoria U20
2.05

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par
Sampdoria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Sampdoria U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw
74%
Bologna U20 or Sampdoria U20
77%
Draw or Sampdoria U20
49%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+
28%
Sampdoria U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals
83%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
54%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
27%
Sampdoria U20 1+ goals
71%
Sampdoria U20 2+ goals
35%
Sampdoria U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Sampdoria U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Sampdoria U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Sampdoria U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sampdoria U20 attack 0.95 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bologna U20 scores more
51%
level
23%
Sampdoria U20 scores more
26%

Bologna U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bologna U20 vs Sampdoria U20

Bologna U20 beat Sampdoria U20 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Crespellano in Crespellano.