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Bologna U20 vs Parma U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U20
Bologna U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Parma U20
Parma U20
11/23/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 12Centro Sportivo Crespellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bologna U2033%
×Draw26%
Parma U2041%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U20
1.28
Parma U20
1.46

Parma U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bologna U20
1.56
Parma U20
1.40

allows per match

Bologna U20
1.51
Parma U20
1.00

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par
Parma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Parma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw
59%
Bologna U20 or Parma U20
74%
Draw or Parma U20
67%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+
14%
Parma U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals
72%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
37%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
14%
Parma U20 1+ goals
77%
Parma U20 2+ goals
43%
Parma U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
44%
Parma U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Parma U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Parma U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Parma U20 attack 1.40 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bologna U20 scores more
33%
level
26%
Parma U20 scores more
41%

Parma U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Parma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bologna U20 vs Parma U20

Parma U20 beat Bologna U20 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Crespellano in Crespellano.