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Bologna U20 vs Hellas Verona U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U20
Bologna U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hellas Verona U20
Hellas Verona U20
12/19/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 16Centro Sportivo Crespellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bologna U2039%
×Draw24%
Hellas Verona U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U20
1.53
Hellas Verona U20
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bologna U20
1.56
Hellas Verona U20
1.42

allows per match

Bologna U20
1.51
Hellas Verona U20
1.50

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par
Hellas Verona U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Hellas Verona U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw
64%
Bologna U20 or Hellas Verona U20
76%
Draw or Hellas Verona U20
61%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+
19%
Hellas Verona U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals
78%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
45%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
20%
Hellas Verona U20 1+ goals
77%
Hellas Verona U20 2+ goals
43%
Hellas Verona U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Hellas Verona U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Hellas Verona U20 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Hellas Verona U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hellas Verona U20 attack 1.42 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bologna U20 scores more
39%
level
24%
Hellas Verona U20 scores more
36%

Bologna U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bologna U20 vs Hellas Verona U20

Hellas Verona U20 beat Bologna U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on December 19, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Crespellano in Crespellano.