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Bologna U20 vs Cremonese U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U20
Bologna U20
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Cremonese U20
Cremonese U20
9/23/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 5Centro Sportivo Crespellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bologna U2045%
×Draw25%
Cremonese U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U20
1.58
Cremonese U20
1.27

Bologna U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bologna U20
1.56
Cremonese U20
1.03

allows per match

Bologna U20
1.51
Cremonese U20
1.61

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par
Cremonese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Cremonese U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw
69%
Bologna U20 or Cremonese U20
75%
Draw or Cremonese U20
55%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+
23%
Cremonese U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals
79%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
47%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
21%
Cremonese U20 1+ goals
72%
Cremonese U20 2+ goals
36%
Cremonese U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Cremonese U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Cremonese U20 away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Cremonese U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cremonese U20 attack 1.03 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bologna U20 scores more
45%
level
25%
Cremonese U20 scores more
31%

Bologna U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Bologna U20 4–4 Cremonese U20

Bologna U20 and Cremonese U20 drew 4-4 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Crespellano in Crespellano.