Bologna U20 1–2 Atalanta U20: Result & Stats

Bologna U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Atalanta U20

9/26/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 6Centro Sportivo Crespellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bologna U2040%

×Draw25%

Atalanta U2036%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bologna U20Expected goals in this matchAtalanta U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.44

Bologna U20

1.52

Atalanta U20

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

1.56

creates per match

1.37

1.51

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Bologna U20

1.56

Atalanta U20

1.37

allows per match

Bologna U20

1.51

Atalanta U20

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par

Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Atalanta U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw

64%

Bologna U20 or Atalanta U20

75%

Draw or Atalanta U20

60%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+

19%

Atalanta U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals

78%

Bologna U20 2+ goals

45%

Bologna U20 3+ goals

20%

Atalanta U20 1+ goals

76%

Atalanta U20 2+ goals

42%

Atalanta U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Atalanta U20 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atalanta U20 attack 1.37 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bologna U20 scores more

40%

level

25%

Atalanta U20 scores more

36%

Bologna U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff