Bologna U19 3–2 Roma U19: Result & Stats

Bologna U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Roma U19

2/15/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 19Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bologna U1932%

×Draw23%

Roma U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bologna U19Expected goals in this matchRoma U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.76

Bologna U19

1.44

Roma U19

1.76

Roma U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

1.44

creates per match

1.93

1.59

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Bologna U19

1.44

Roma U19

1.93

allows per match

Bologna U19

1.59

Roma U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bologna U19+0.00on par

Roma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U19 ↓

Roma U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bologna U19 or draw

55%

Bologna U19 or Roma U19

77%

Draw or Roma U19

68%

Winning margin

Bologna U19 wins by 2+

14%

Roma U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bologna U19 1+ goals

76%

Bologna U19 2+ goals

42%

Bologna U19 3+ goals

18%

Roma U19 1+ goals

83%

Roma U19 2+ goals

52%

Roma U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Roma U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Roma U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U19 attack 1.44 + Roma U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Roma U19 attack 1.93 + Bologna U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bologna U19 scores more

32%

level

23%

Roma U19 scores more

45%

Roma U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff