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Bologna U19 vs Lecce U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U19
Bologna U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lecce U19
Lecce U19
4/8/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 26Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bologna U1937%
×Draw25%
Lecce U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U19
1.46
Lecce U19
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bologna U19
1.44
Lecce U19
1.37

allows per match

Bologna U19
1.59
Lecce U19
1.47

finishing

Bologna U19+0.00on par
Lecce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U19 ↓

Lecce U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bologna U19 or draw
62%
Bologna U19 or Lecce U19
75%
Draw or Lecce U19
63%

Winning margin

Bologna U19 wins by 2+
18%
Lecce U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bologna U19 1+ goals
77%
Bologna U19 2+ goals
43%
Bologna U19 3+ goals
18%
Lecce U19 1+ goals
77%
Lecce U19 2+ goals
43%
Lecce U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Lecce U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Lecce U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U19 attack 1.44 + Lecce U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lecce U19 attack 1.37 + Bologna U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bologna U19 scores more
37%
level
25%
Lecce U19 scores more
38%

Lecce U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lecce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bologna U19 vs Lecce U19

Lecce U19 beat Bologna U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli in Bologna.