Bologna U19 0–0 Genoa U19: Result & Stats

Bologna U19

FT

0 – 0

Genoa U19

4/24/2021

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 20Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bologna U1940%

×Draw25%

Genoa U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bologna U19Expected goals in this matchGenoa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.43

Bologna U19

1.52

Genoa U19

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 50 away

1.44

creates per match

1.26

1.59

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Bologna U19

1.44

Genoa U19

1.26

allows per match

Bologna U19

1.59

Genoa U19

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bologna U19+0.00on par

Genoa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U19 ↓

Genoa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bologna U19 or draw

64%

Bologna U19 or Genoa U19

75%

Draw or Genoa U19

60%

Winning margin

Bologna U19 wins by 2+

19%

Genoa U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bologna U19 1+ goals

78%

Bologna U19 2+ goals

45%

Bologna U19 3+ goals

20%

Genoa U19 1+ goals

76%

Genoa U19 2+ goals

42%

Genoa U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Genoa U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U19 attack 1.44 + Genoa U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Genoa U19 attack 1.26 + Bologna U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bologna U19 scores more

40%

level

25%

Genoa U19 scores more

36%

Bologna U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bologna U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff