Bologna U19 0–1 Empoli U19: Result & Stats

Bologna U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Empoli U19

3/17/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 26Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bologna U1941%

×Draw24%

Empoli U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bologna U19Expected goals in this matchEmpoli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.52

Bologna U19

1.63

Empoli U19

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

1.44

creates per match

1.46

1.59

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Bologna U19

1.44

Empoli U19

1.46

allows per match

Bologna U19

1.59

Empoli U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bologna U19+0.00on par

Empoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U19 ↓

Empoli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bologna U19 or draw

64%

Bologna U19 or Empoli U19

76%

Draw or Empoli U19

59%

Winning margin

Bologna U19 wins by 2+

20%

Empoli U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bologna U19 1+ goals

80%

Bologna U19 2+ goals

48%

Bologna U19 3+ goals

22%

Empoli U19 1+ goals

78%

Empoli U19 2+ goals

45%

Empoli U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Empoli U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.82 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U19 attack 1.44 + Empoli U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Empoli U19 attack 1.46 + Bologna U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bologna U19 scores more

41%

level

24%

Empoli U19 scores more

36%

Bologna U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bologna U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff