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Bologna U19 vs Cagliari U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U19
Bologna U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Cagliari U19
Cagliari U19
1/15/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 14Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bologna U1941%
×Draw24%
Cagliari U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U19
1.62
Cagliari U19
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bologna U19
1.44
Cagliari U19
1.36

allows per match

Bologna U19
1.59
Cagliari U19
1.80

finishing

Bologna U19+0.00on par
Cagliari U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U19 ↓

Cagliari U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bologna U19 or draw
65%
Bologna U19 or Cagliari U19
76%
Draw or Cagliari U19
59%

Winning margin

Bologna U19 wins by 2+
21%
Cagliari U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bologna U19 1+ goals
80%
Bologna U19 2+ goals
48%
Bologna U19 3+ goals
22%
Cagliari U19 1+ goals
77%
Cagliari U19 2+ goals
43%
Cagliari U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Cagliari U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Cagliari U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U19 attack 1.44 + Cagliari U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.62

Cagliari U19 attack 1.36 + Bologna U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bologna U19 scores more
41%
level
24%
Cagliari U19 scores more
35%

Bologna U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bologna U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bologna U19 vs Cagliari U19

Bologna U19 beat Cagliari U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli in Bologna.