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Bollullos vs Gerena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gerena
Gerena
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Bollullos42%
×Draw28%
Gerena31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.29
Gerena
1.06

Bollullos creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 76 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
Gerena
1.11

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
Gerena
1.26

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

Gerena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
69%
Bollullos or Gerena
72%
Draw or Gerena
58%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
19%
Gerena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
72%
Bollullos 2+ goals
37%
Bollullos 3+ goals
14%
Gerena 1+ goals
65%
Gerena 2+ goals
29%
Gerena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
58%
Gerena (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gerena attack 1.11 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bollullos scores more
42%
level
28%
Gerena scores more
31%

Bollullos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bollullos vs Gerena

Bollullos and Gerena drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.