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Bollullos vs Cabecense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cabecense
Cabecense
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bollullos57%
×Draw26%
Cabecense18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.55
Cabecense
0.74

Bollullos creates 109% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 47 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
Cabecense
0.49

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
Cabecense
1.79

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
Cabecense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

Cabecense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
82%
Bollullos or Cabecense
74%
Draw or Cabecense
43%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
30%
Cabecense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
79%
Bollullos 2+ goals
46%
Bollullos 3+ goals
20%
Cabecense 1+ goals
52%
Cabecense 2+ goals
17%
Cabecense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
76%
Cabecense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

Cabecense away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + Cabecense defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Cabecense attack 0.49 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bollullos scores more
57%
level
26%
Cabecense scores more
18%

Bollullos at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bollullos vs Cabecense

Bollullos beat Cabecense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.