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Bollullos vs Atlético Onubense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
1/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 18Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bollullos38%
×Draw27%
Atlético Onubense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.25
Atlético Onubense
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
Atlético Onubense
1.35

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
Atlético Onubense
1.18

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

Atlético Onubense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
65%
Bollullos or Atlético Onubense
73%
Draw or Atlético Onubense
62%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
17%
Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
71%
Bollullos 2+ goals
36%
Bollullos 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
52%
Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

Atlético Onubense away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + Atlético Onubense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlético Onubense attack 1.35 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bollullos scores more
38%
level
27%
Atlético Onubense scores more
35%

Bollullos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Bollullos 1–1 Atlético Onubense

Bollullos and Atlético Onubense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.