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Bollullos vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bollullos52%
×Draw25%
Atlético Espeleño23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.60
Atlético Espeleño
0.96

Bollullos creates 67% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
77%
Bollullos or Atlético Espeleño
75%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
48%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
80%
Bollullos 2+ goals
47%
Bollullos 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
70%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bollullos scores more
52%
level
25%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
23%

Bollullos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Bollullos 3–0 Atlético Espeleño

Bollullos beat Atlético Espeleño 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.