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Bollstanäs W vs Norrköping W — Elitettan 2021

Bollstanäs W
Bollstanäs W
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Norrköping W
Norrköping W
10/16/2021ElitettanElitettan · Round 23Bollstanäs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bollstanäs W20%
×Draw22%
Norrköping W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollstanäs W
1.08
Norrköping W
1.97

Norrköping W creates 82% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bollstanäs W
1.25
Norrköping W
2.12

allows per match

Bollstanäs W
1.81
Norrköping W
0.92

finishing

Bollstanäs W+0.00on par
Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollstanäs W ↓

Norrköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bollstanäs W or draw
42%
Bollstanäs W or Norrköping W
78%
Draw or Norrköping W
80%

Winning margin

Bollstanäs W wins by 2+
7%
Norrköping W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Bollstanäs W 1+ goals
66%
Bollstanäs W 2+ goals
29%
Bollstanäs W 3+ goals
10%
Norrköping W 1+ goals
86%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
58%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Bollstanäs W (draw refunded)
26%
Norrköping W (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollstanäs W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollstanäs W attack 1.25 + Norrköping W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Norrköping W attack 2.12 + Bollstanäs W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bollstanäs W scores more
20%
level
22%
Norrköping W scores more
58%

Norrköping W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Bollstanäs W 2–4 Norrköping W

Norrköping W beat Bollstanäs W 4-2 in Elitettan on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Bollstanäs IP in Upplands Väsby.