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Bolivia W vs El Salvador W — Friendlies Women 2026

Bolivia W
Bolivia W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
El Salvador W
El Salvador W
J. Mamani 44'
V. Sanchez 90+1', 56'
5/31/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bolivia W10%
×Draw14%
El Salvador W76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolivia W
0.91
El Salvador W
2.79

El Salvador W creates 207% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bolivia W
0.67
El Salvador W
2.57

allows per match

Bolivia W
3.00
El Salvador W
1.14

finishing

Bolivia W+0.00on par
El Salvador W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolivia W ↓

El Salvador W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bolivia W or draw
24%
Bolivia W or El Salvador W
86%
Draw or El Salvador W
90%

Winning margin

Bolivia W wins by 2+
3%
El Salvador W wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Bolivia W 1+ goals
60%
Bolivia W 2+ goals
23%
Bolivia W 3+ goals
6%
El Salvador W 1+ goals
94%
El Salvador W 2+ goals
76%
El Salvador W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Bolivia W (draw refunded)
11%
El Salvador W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolivia W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

El Salvador W away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolivia W attack 0.67 + El Salvador W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

El Salvador W attack 2.57 + Bolivia W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Bolivia W scores more
10%
level
14%
El Salvador W scores more
76%

El Salvador W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "El Salvador W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
J. Mamani
46'
S. Fisher← A. Ghirina
46'
A. Marinero← A. Marinero
46'
J. Velasquez← J. Velasquez
56'
V. Sanchez
59'
65'
M. Dominguez← M. Dominguez
66'
67'
80'
83'
A. Lopez← A. Lopez
90+1'
V. Sanchez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolivia W vs El Salvador W

El Salvador W beat Bolivia W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on May 31, 2024.

Goals: J. Mamani (44'), V. Sanchez (56', 90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.