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Bolivia vs Andorra — Friendlies 2026

Bolivia
Bolivia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Andorra
Andorra
R. Vaca 13'
3/25/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade du 19 Mai 1956

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bolivia62%
×Draw23%
Andorra15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolivia
1.77
Andorra
0.72

Bolivia creates 146% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bolivia
1.45
Andorra
0.08

allows per match

Bolivia
1.36
Andorra
2.08

finishing

Bolivia+0.00on par
Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolivia ↓

Andorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bolivia or draw
85%
Bolivia or Andorra
77%
Draw or Andorra
38%

Winning margin

Bolivia wins by 2+
36%
Andorra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bolivia 1+ goals
83%
Bolivia 2+ goals
53%
Bolivia 3+ goals
26%
Andorra 1+ goals
51%
Andorra 2+ goals
16%
Andorra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bolivia (draw refunded)
81%
Andorra (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolivia at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Andorra away — creates 0.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolivia attack 1.45 + Andorra defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Andorra attack 0.08 + Bolivia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bolivia scores more
62%
level
23%
Andorra scores more
15%

Bolivia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bolivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
R. Vaca↳ R. Fernández
46'
Y. Rocha← D. Medina
46'
G. Villamíl← B. Céspedes
62'
Chus Rubio← Èric de Pablos
62'
Cucu← Marc Pujol
62'
Xisco Pires← Josep Gómes
64'
J. Reinoso← R. Ramallo
64'
J. Cuéllar← C. Algarañaz
73'
Marc García← Izan Fernández
73'
Álex Martínez← Aarón Sánchez
76'
João Teixeira
79'
Albert Reyes← Joel Guillén
80'
J. Arrascaita← R. Matheus
83'
Adrián Jusino

Statistics

BoliviaAndorra
Overview
4Corners8
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Bolivia vs Andorra

Bolivia beat Andorra 1-0 in Friendlies on March 25, 2024.

Goals: R. Vaca (13').

The match was played at Stade du 19 Mai 1956 in Annaba.