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Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto — Primera División 2026

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
11/3/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 24Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Bolívar70%
×Draw18%
Universitario de Vinto12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
2.29
Universitario de Vinto
0.82

Bolívar creates 179% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 76 away

creates per match

Bolívar
2.94
Universitario de Vinto
0.82

allows per match

Bolívar
0.83
Universitario de Vinto
1.64

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Universitario de Vinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
88%
Bolívar or Universitario de Vinto
82%
Draw or Universitario de Vinto
30%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
47%
Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
90%
Bolívar 2+ goals
66%
Bolívar 3+ goals
40%
Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
56%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
20%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
85%
Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.83 · 131 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.94 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.29

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.82 + Bolívar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bolívar scores more
70%
level
18%
Universitario de Vinto scores more
12%

Bolívar at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto

Bolívar beat Universitario de Vinto 3-0 in Primera División on November 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.