Bolívar 4–4 The Strongest: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

The Strongest

2/25/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Bolívar58%

×Draw21%

The Strongest21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchThe Strongest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.22

Bolívar

2.13

The Strongest

1.22

Bolívar creates 75% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 132 away

2.94

creates per match

1.60

0.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Bolívar

2.94

The Strongest

1.60

allows per match

Bolívar

0.83

The Strongest

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

The Strongest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

79%

Bolívar or The Strongest

79%

Draw or The Strongest

42%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

35%

The Strongest wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

88%

Bolívar 2+ goals

63%

Bolívar 3+ goals

35%

The Strongest 1+ goals

70%

The Strongest 2+ goals

34%

The Strongest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

73%

The Strongest (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.83 · 131 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.94 + The Strongest defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.13

The Strongest attack 1.60 + Bolívar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bolívar scores more

58%

level

21%

The Strongest scores more

21%

Bolívar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff