Bolívar 0–0 San Antonio Bulo Bulo: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

8/20/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Bolívar66%

×Draw18%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchSan Antonio Bulo Bulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.09

Bolívar

2.42

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.09

Bolívar creates 122% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 41 away

2.95

creates per match

1.34

0.85

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Bolívar

2.95

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.34

allows per match

Bolívar

0.85

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

San Antonio Bulo Bulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

84%

Bolívar or San Antonio Bulo Bulo

82%

Draw or San Antonio Bulo Bulo

34%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

44%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

91%

Bolívar 2+ goals

69%

Bolívar 3+ goals

43%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals

66%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals

30%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

81%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.95 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.42

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.34 + Bolívar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bolívar scores more

66%

level

18%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more

16%

Bolívar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Y. Rocha

Bolívar · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

Jerry Alaca

32'

Ervin Vaca

41'

Edwin Rivera

46'

L. Paz← E. Vaca

46'

José Sagredo← Anderson

47'

47'

49'

54'

58'

Fábio Gomes← A. Oviedo

63'

José Sagredo

71'

R. Vaca← J. Velásquez

71'

A. Fernández← Arthur

73'

M. Castellón← I. Huayhuata

73'

S. Viveros← Neto Acará

74'

Huberth Sánchez

75'

L. Montenegro← L. Justiniano

80'

Henry VacaGoal cancelled

86'

Marcelo De Lima

89'

L. Chávez← H. Vaca

89'

J. Rodríguez← E. Rivera

90+9'

90+9'

90+8'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolívarSan

Overview

76%Possession24%

15Total Shots7

13Corners6

12Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target2

7Off Target3

4Blocked2

5Inside Box6

10Outside Box1

Passing

76%Possession24%

490Total Passes151

427Accurate Passes85

87%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

4Yellow Cards9

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0