Bolívar 4–1 Real Tomayapo: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Tomayapo

5/19/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Bolívar72%

×Draw17%

Real Tomayapo11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchReal Tomayapo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.85

Bolívar

2.44

Real Tomayapo

0.85

Bolívar creates 187% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 89 away

2.94

creates per match

0.88

0.83

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Bolívar

2.94

Real Tomayapo

0.88

allows per match

Bolívar

0.83

Real Tomayapo

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Real Tomayapo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

89%

Bolívar or Real Tomayapo

83%

Draw or Real Tomayapo

28%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

49%

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

91%

Bolívar 2+ goals

70%

Bolívar 3+ goals

43%

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

57%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

21%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

86%

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.83 · 131 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.94 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.94 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.44

Real Tomayapo attack 0.88 + Bolívar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bolívar scores more

72%

level

17%

Real Tomayapo scores more

11%

Bolívar at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff