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Bolívar vs Nacional Potosí — Primera División 2026

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
Bruno Sávio 70'
R. Vaca 66'
E. Vaca 47'
Miyhel Ortiz 45+1' (OG)
L. Justiniano 2'
C. Preciado 90+7'
E. Restrepo 90'
M. Prost 58'
11/24/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 22Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Bolívar66%
×Draw18%
Nacional Potosí15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
2.35
Nacional Potosí
1.03

Bolívar creates 128% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 131 away

creates per match

Bolívar
2.94
Nacional Potosí
1.22

allows per match

Bolívar
0.85
Nacional Potosí
1.77

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Nacional Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
85%
Bolívar or Nacional Potosí
82%
Draw or Nacional Potosí
34%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
44%
Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
90%
Bolívar 2+ goals
68%
Bolívar 3+ goals
41%
Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
64%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
28%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
81%
Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.85 · 134 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.77 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.94 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.35

Nacional Potosí attack 1.22 + Bolívar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bolívar scores more
66%
level
18%
Nacional Potosí scores more
15%

Bolívar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. VacaBolívarBolívar · M
9.2

Match Events

2'
L. Justiniano↳ C. Melgar
9'
Diego Josue Hoyos
26'
Renzo Orihuela
45+1'
Miyhel OrtizOwn goal
46'
M. Andia← D. Hoyos
46'
É. Correa← W. Álvarez
47'
E. Vaca↳ R. Vaca
58'
M. Prost↳ É. Correa
65'
Bruno Sávio← J. Velásquez
66'
R. Vaca↳ A. Oviedo
68'
C. Preciado← H. Rojas
70'
Bruno Sávio↳ C. Melgar
73'
Fábio Gomes← A. Oviedo
73'
Jesús Sagredo← R. Orihuela
73'
P. Rodríguez← F. Saucedo
74'
L. Paz← Y. Rocha
75'
Ervin Vaca
82'
Luis Demiquel
84'
Carlos MelgarGoal cancelled
84'
L. Pavia← P. Azogue
84'
V. Abrego← M. Prost
87'
Carlos Melgar
90'
E. Restrepo↳ C. Preciado
90+7'
C. Preciado

Possession

51%Bolívar

Shots

18Bolívar

Pass accuracy

50%Bolívar

Statistics

BolívarNacional
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots12
7Corners4
20Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots12
10On Target8
6Off Target3
2Blocked1
11Inside Box5
7Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
346Total Passes333
280Accurate Passes271
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
20Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Primera División: Bolívar 5–3 Nacional Potosí

Bolívar beat Nacional Potosí 5-3 in Primera División on November 24, 2024.

Goals: L. Justiniano (2'), Miyhel Ortiz (45+1' o.g.), E. Vaca (47'), M. Prost (58'), R. Vaca (66'), Bruno Sávio (70'), E. Restrepo (90'), C. Preciado (90+7').

Bolívar controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.