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Bolívar vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
4/2/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 2CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bolívar45%
×Draw31%
Libertador FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.14
Libertador FC
0.74

Bolívar creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bolívar
0.94
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Bolívar
0.76
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
76%
Bolívar or Libertador FC
69%
Draw or Libertador FC
55%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
19%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
68%
Bolívar 2+ goals
32%
Bolívar 3+ goals
11%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
52%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
17%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
65%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 0.94 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Bolívar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bolívar scores more
45%
level
31%
Libertador FC scores more
24%

Bolívar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Bolívar 0–2 Libertador FC

Libertador FC beat Bolívar 2-0 in Segunda División on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay in Ciudad Guayana.