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Bolívar vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
8/19/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 24Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bolívar79%
×Draw13%
Libertad8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
2.88
Libertad
0.83

Bolívar creates 247% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bolívar
2.93
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

Bolívar
0.84
Libertad
2.83

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
92%
Bolívar or Libertad
87%
Draw or Libertad
21%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
58%
Libertad wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
94%
Bolívar 2+ goals
78%
Bolívar 3+ goals
54%
Libertad 1+ goals
56%
Libertad 2+ goals
20%
Libertad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
91%
Libertad (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.84 · 130 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.93 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.88

Libertad attack 0.83 + Bolívar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Bolívar scores more
79%
level
13%
Libertad scores more
8%

Bolívar at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolívar vs Libertad

Bolívar beat Libertad 3-0 in Primera División on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.