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Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ — Primera División 2026

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2/17/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bolívar69%
×Draw18%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
2.42
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
0.98

Bolívar creates 147% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 40 away

creates per match

Bolívar
2.94
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.13

allows per match

Bolívar
0.83
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.90

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Gualberto Villarroel SJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
86%
Bolívar or Gualberto Villarroel SJ
82%
Draw or Gualberto Villarroel SJ
31%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
46%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
91%
Bolívar 2+ goals
69%
Bolívar 3+ goals
43%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals
62%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals
26%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
83%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.83 · 131 matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.94 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.42

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 1.13 + Bolívar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bolívar scores more
69%
level
18%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more
14%

Bolívar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Bolívar beat Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3-1 in Primera División on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.