Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bolívar vs Atlético La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético La Cruz
Atlético La Cruz
4/25/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 4CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bolívar39%
×Draw30%
Atlético La Cruz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.10
Atlético La Cruz
0.92

Bolívar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bolívar
0.94
Atlético La Cruz
1.08

allows per match

Bolívar
0.76
Atlético La Cruz
1.26

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Atlético La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
70%
Bolívar or Atlético La Cruz
70%
Draw or Atlético La Cruz
61%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
16%
Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
67%
Bolívar 2+ goals
30%
Bolívar 3+ goals
10%
Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals
60%
Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals
23%
Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Atlético La Cruz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 0.94 + Atlético La Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.08 + Bolívar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bolívar scores more
39%
level
30%
Atlético La Cruz scores more
30%

Bolívar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Bolívar 0–2 Atlético La Cruz

Atlético La Cruz beat Bolívar 2-0 in Segunda División on April 25, 2022.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay in Ciudad Guayana.