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Bolívar vs Angostura FC — Copa Venezuela 2024

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
6/4/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group DEstadio Decanato UDO Bolívar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bolívar38%
×Draw36%
Angostura FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
0.85
Angostura FC
0.65

Bolívar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bolívar
0.50
Angostura FC
0.80

allows per match

Bolívar
0.50
Angostura FC
1.20

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
74%
Bolívar or Angostura FC
64%
Draw or Angostura FC
62%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
13%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
57%
Bolívar 2+ goals
21%
Bolívar 3+ goals
5%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
48%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
14%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
59%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 0.50 + Angostura FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Angostura FC attack 0.80 + Bolívar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolívar scores more
38%
level
36%
Angostura FC scores more
26%

Bolívar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Bolívar 1–1 Angostura FC

Bolívar and Angostura FC drew 1-1 in Copa Venezuela on June 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar in Bolívar.