Bolívar 1–1 Angostura FC: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Angostura FC

4/6/2025

Segunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bolívar45%

×Draw28%

Angostura FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchAngostura FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

Bolívar

1.33

Angostura FC

0.98

Bolívar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

1.38

creates per match

1.05

0.91

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Bolívar

1.38

Angostura FC

1.05

allows per match

Bolívar

0.91

Angostura FC

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Angostura FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

72%

Bolívar or Angostura FC

72%

Draw or Angostura FC

55%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

21%

Angostura FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

74%

Bolívar 2+ goals

38%

Bolívar 3+ goals

15%

Angostura FC 1+ goals

62%

Angostura FC 2+ goals

26%

Angostura FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

62%

Angostura FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bolívar scores more

45%

level

28%

Angostura FC scores more

28%

Bolívar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff