Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bokelj vs Mladost Lješkopolje — Second League 2019

Bokelj
Bokelj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
9/24/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion pod Vrmcem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bokelj50%
×Draw25%
Mladost Lješkopolje24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bokelj
1.56
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.00

Bokelj creates 56% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bokelj
1.55
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.20

allows per match

Bokelj
0.81
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.57

finishing

Bokelj+0.00on par
Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bokelj ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bokelj or draw
76%
Bokelj or Mladost Lješkopolje
75%
Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje
50%

Winning margin

Bokelj wins by 2+
26%
Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bokelj 1+ goals
79%
Bokelj 2+ goals
46%
Bokelj 3+ goals
21%
Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
63%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
26%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bokelj (draw refunded)
67%
Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bokelj at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bokelj attack 1.55 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Bokelj defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bokelj scores more
50%
level
25%
Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
24%

Bokelj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bokelj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bokelj vs Mladost Lješkopolje

Bokelj beat Mladost Lješkopolje 2-1 in Second League on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion pod Vrmcem in Kotor.