Bokelj 4–1 Internacional Podgorica: Result & Stats

Bokelj

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Internacional Podgorica

11/26/2023

Second League · Round 18Stadion pod Vrmcem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bokelj60%

×Draw23%

Internacional Podgorica17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BokeljExpected goals in this matchInternacional Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.83

Bokelj

1.81

Internacional Podgorica

0.83

Bokelj creates 118% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 36 away

1.55

creates per match

0.86

0.81

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Bokelj

1.55

Internacional Podgorica

0.86

allows per match

Bokelj

0.81

Internacional Podgorica

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bokelj+0.00on par

Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bokelj ↓

Internacional Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bokelj or draw

83%

Bokelj or Internacional Podgorica

77%

Draw or Internacional Podgorica

40%

Winning margin

Bokelj wins by 2+

35%

Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bokelj 1+ goals

84%

Bokelj 2+ goals

54%

Bokelj 3+ goals

27%

Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals

56%

Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals

20%

Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bokelj (draw refunded)

78%

Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bokelj at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

Internacional Podgorica away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bokelj attack 1.55 + Internacional Podgorica defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Internacional Podgorica attack 0.86 + Bokelj defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bokelj scores more

60%

level

23%

Internacional Podgorica scores more

17%

Bokelj at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bokelj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff