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Bokelj vs Ibar — Second League 2019

Bokelj
Bokelj
FT
1 – 2
Ibar
Ibar
9/8/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 6Stadion pod Vrmcem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bokelj61%
×Draw23%
Ibar16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bokelj
1.73
Ibar
0.75

Bokelj creates 131% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bokelj
1.55
Ibar
0.68

allows per match

Bokelj
0.81
Ibar
1.92

finishing

Bokelj+0.00on par
Ibar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bokelj ↓

Ibar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bokelj or draw
84%
Bokelj or Ibar
77%
Draw or Ibar
39%

Winning margin

Bokelj wins by 2+
35%
Ibar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bokelj 1+ goals
82%
Bokelj 2+ goals
52%
Bokelj 3+ goals
25%
Ibar 1+ goals
53%
Ibar 2+ goals
17%
Ibar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bokelj (draw refunded)
79%
Ibar (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bokelj at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

Ibar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bokelj attack 1.55 + Ibar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ibar attack 0.68 + Bokelj defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bokelj scores more
61%
level
23%
Ibar scores more
16%

Bokelj at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bokelj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bokelj vs Ibar

Ibar beat Bokelj 2-1 in Second League on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion pod Vrmcem in Kotor.