Bokelj 0–1 FK Mladost Podgorica: Result & Stats

Bokelj

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Mladost Podgorica

7/14/2020

First League · Relegation Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bokelj37%

×Draw28%

FK Mladost Podgorica36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BokeljExpected goals in this matchFK Mladost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Bokelj

1.21

FK Mladost Podgorica

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 34 away

1.05

creates per match

0.82

1.55

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bokelj

1.05

FK Mladost Podgorica

0.82

allows per match

Bokelj

1.55

FK Mladost Podgorica

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bokelj+0.00on par

FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bokelj ↓

FK Mladost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bokelj or draw

64%

Bokelj or FK Mladost Podgorica

72%

Draw or FK Mladost Podgorica

63%

Winning margin

Bokelj wins by 2+

16%

FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bokelj 1+ goals

70%

Bokelj 2+ goals

34%

Bokelj 3+ goals

12%

FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals

70%

FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals

33%

FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bokelj (draw refunded)

51%

FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bokelj at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

FK Mladost Podgorica away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bokelj attack 1.05 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.82 + Bokelj defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bokelj scores more

37%

level

28%

FK Mladost Podgorica scores more

36%

Bokelj at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bokelj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff