Bokelj 0–4 Buducnost Podgorica: Result & Stats

Bokelj

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Buducnost Podgorica

4/26/2025

First League · Round 31Stadion pod Vrmcem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bokelj24%

×Draw25%

Buducnost Podgorica51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BokeljExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.65

Bokelj

1.05

Buducnost Podgorica

1.65

Buducnost Podgorica creates 57% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 123 away

1.05

creates per match

1.75

1.55

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Bokelj

1.05

Buducnost Podgorica

1.75

allows per match

Bokelj

1.55

Buducnost Podgorica

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bokelj+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bokelj ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bokelj or draw

49%

Bokelj or Buducnost Podgorica

75%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

76%

Winning margin

Bokelj wins by 2+

9%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Bokelj 1+ goals

65%

Bokelj 2+ goals

28%

Bokelj 3+ goals

9%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

81%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

49%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bokelj (draw refunded)

32%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bokelj at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bokelj attack 1.05 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Bokelj defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bokelj scores more

24%

level

25%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

51%

Buducnost Podgorica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff