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Bokelj vs Buducnost Podgorica — Cup 2020

Bokelj
Bokelj
CANC
00:00
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
11/1/2023CupCup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bokelj26%
×Draw21%
Buducnost Podgorica53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bokelj
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
2.09

Buducnost Podgorica creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bokelj
1.67
Buducnost Podgorica
2.18

allows per match

Bokelj
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica
1.18

finishing

Bokelj+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bokelj ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bokelj or draw
47%
Bokelj or Buducnost Podgorica
79%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
74%

Winning margin

Bokelj wins by 2+
11%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bokelj 1+ goals
76%
Bokelj 2+ goals
41%
Bokelj 3+ goals
17%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
88%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
62%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bokelj (draw refunded)
33%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bokelj at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bokelj attack 1.67 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.18 + Bokelj defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bokelj scores more
26%
level
21%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
53%

Buducnost Podgorica at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bokelj face Buducnost Podgorica (Cup)

Cup returns with Bokelj hosting Buducnost Podgorica. Match starts November 1, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.