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Douglas Haig vs Defensa Y Justicia — Primera Nacional 2026

Douglas Haig
Douglas Haig
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
5/31/2014Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 41Estadio Miguel Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Douglas Haig57%
×Draw24%
Defensa Y Justicia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douglas Haig
1.67
Defensa Y Justicia
0.83

Douglas Haig creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Douglas Haig
1.67
Defensa Y Justicia
0.67

allows per match

Douglas Haig
1.00
Defensa Y Justicia
1.67

finishing

Douglas Haig+0.00on par
Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douglas Haig ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Douglas Haig or draw
81%
Douglas Haig or Defensa Y Justicia
76%
Draw or Defensa Y Justicia
43%

Winning margin

Douglas Haig wins by 2+
32%
Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Douglas Haig 1+ goals
81%
Douglas Haig 2+ goals
50%
Douglas Haig 3+ goals
23%
Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
56%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
20%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Douglas Haig (draw refunded)
76%
Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douglas Haig at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douglas Haig attack 1.67 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Defensa Y Justicia attack 0.67 + Douglas Haig defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Douglas Haig scores more
57%
level
24%
Defensa Y Justicia scores more
19%

Douglas Haig at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Douglas Haig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Douglas Haig 4–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Douglas Haig beat Defensa Y Justicia 4-1 in Primera Nacional on May 31, 2014.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Morales in Pergamino, Provincia de Buenos Aires.